Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Sumter County, . In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. 2023 BBC. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. They're just facts about the vote. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. Their hopes are real. In communities . You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Trump won the other 18 counties. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Until this year. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Demographics (84) 12. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). University of New Hampshire . What, if anything, did we miss? What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via These are the bellwether counties. All rights reserved. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election.
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