But his moderation has endeared him to voters in his home state of West Virginia: He has a +22 net approval rating in the R+36 state, for a chamber-leading PARS of +58. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. According to the survey of about 800 registered voters, Democratic Governor Tony Evers' approval rating slid from 50% in August to 45%. Cant fix stupid or true believers. Like we did for PARG, we can use PARS as a tool to assess the 2020 Senate elections specifically, to give us clues about which of the senators whose seats are up in 2020 might be poised to over- or underperform their partys presidential ticket. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) insisted Sunday that his low approval ratings are not at all his fault and that he is "not a polarizing figure." Johnson made the comments during an interview with journalist Adrienne Pedersen on Milwaukee television . Governors net approval ratings (approval ratings minus disapproval ratings) for the first three months of 2022 relative to the FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of their states. But in fact, he has been quite polarizing. The same Marquette poll showed that among likely voters, Johnson is leading his Democratic . trails Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by seven points his largest deficit in a key race that could determine which party controls the Senate according to a poll from Marquette University Law School released Wednesday, as Johnson faces several political controversies. This story was republished on Jan. 16, 2023, to make it free for all readers. Johnson, who is one of Trumps biggest supporters in the Senate, has come under fire in recent months for controversial remarks, including arguing Social Security and Medicare should be categorized as discretionary spending, spreading misinformation about Covid-19 vaccines potentially causing AIDS, saying he doesnt trust the FBI after it searched Trumps Mar-a-Lago estate last week, and sending text messages to aides revealed at the January 6 hearings indicating he wanted to hand-deliver fake electors to former Vice President Mike Pence during the 2020 election. Joe Zepecki, a Milwaukee-based Democratic communications strategist, said other issues like Russias aggression in Ukraine, the Supreme Courts handling of Roe v. Wade and the uncertain trajectory of the pandemic could also change the climate come November. Finally, the senator who ranks last in PARS is also up for reelection in 2020, and its a big name: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Post author: Charles Franklin; Post published: August 17, 2022; Post category: Poll Release . Eli Lilly CEO announces it will cap out-of-pocket costs for its insulin at $35, GOP bill would fund security grants for 'pregnancy centers' only if they oppose abortion, House Republicans vote for repeal of climate-related investment regulations, Rep. James Comer criticizes U.S. attorney for not investigating Biden's dead son, House GOP members interrogate Biden administration efforts to address environmental racism, Fact check: No, the Biden administration is not trying to ban gas stoves. Some 83% of Republicans polled said they are absolutely certain to vote in the November general election, over 82% of Democrats and 66% of independents. According to the latest figures, taken from surveys conducted among 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31, 36 percent of Badger State voters approved of his job performance, 51 percent disapproved and 13 percent had no opinion. Both have negative net approval ratings despite governing fairly blue states. Mandela Barnes is the choice of 46%. McConnell manages just a -13 net approval rating despite inhabiting an R+23 state. It began in the age of enlightment (renaissance). Nearly six years ago, national Republicans had largely written off Johnsons eventually successful re-election campaign as Morning Consult surveys showed 45 percent of Wisconsin voters approved of his job performance, 33 percent disapproved and 22 percent had no opinion. Jimmy Carter 1977-81. Meanwhile, only about 1 in 4 Wisconsin Republicans (27 percent) strongly approve of Johnsons job performance, which is down 9 points since the first three months of his term. Price: US $0.99. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. Barnes, 35, would become the youngest member of the Senate, as well as Wisconsin's first Black senator, if he wins in November. Its based on the same premise as my Popularity Above Replacement Governor (PARG) statistic1 that its a good idea to think about politicians popularity in the context of their states partisanship. Ron Johnson is America's second least popular senator after only Mitch (Photo by Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call via AP Images), Biden throws out Trump energy policy that added millions of tons of carbon pollution, Madison Cawthorn caught breaking the law again, Marjorie Taylor Greene pledges bill to criminalize gender-affirming care in CPAC speech, Republicans lawmakers show off their awards from anti-LGBTQ Family Research Council. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the battleground state, which voted for former President Donald Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Sykes agreed the Democratic Party has what it takes to pull off a victory, but warned that a lot of what happens in November may be out of their control. But whatever strengths Johnson brings to his bid for a third term, his current standing with the Wisconsin public poses some real perils. But the electorate has hardened around him. Bolded rows denote governors running for reelection in 2022. . While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. Johnson has come under fire in recent months for his votes to cut taxes for himself and his very rich donors while backing "most of" National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Rick Scott's 11-point "Rescue America" proposal which includes a large tax hike for more than 100 million lower-income and retired Americans and fighting against efforts to make child care more affordable. If the Democratic presidential nominee carries their states (admittedly, this will be easier for Colorado than for Texas), the party may get a Senate seat as a bonus. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. Ditch the ads, get free stuff. The 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Kansas, with primary elections taking place on August 2, 2022. How Every Senator And Governor Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement, reinstate former President Donald Trumps account, What The 20 Republicans Who Voted Against Kevin McCarthy Have In Common. A 2001 industry survey conducted by ``Information Security,'' released on October 16, indicated that out of 2,100 respondents, an overwhelming 89% experienced virus, worms, or trojan breeches in the last three months. Wisconsin Democrats are eager to win back the Senate seat, which has been occupied by Republican Sen. Ron Johnson a top conservative foil and ally to former President Donald Trump since he . Governor Mandela Barnes, and even tighter in the Republican primary for governor, with businessman Tim Michelsin a near-tie with former Lt. Pollapalooza (249) Finally, the fault lines in the electorate are deeper today than they were back then. Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly, Maggie Hassan and Catherine Cortez Masto all have PARS scores of at least +7, suggesting that they are capable of outperforming the base partisanship of their state. But a comparison between then and now also points to the challenges Johnson faces. Quarterly polls conducted from 2017-2021 among representative samples of at least 2,517 registered Wisconsin voters, with unweighted margins of error of up to +/-3 percentage points for responses shown. The two-term incumbent, backed by former President Donald Trump, is the only Republican senator running for reelection in a state that President Joe Biden won in 2020. That suggests she has a bit of crossover appeal, but that her fate is still closely tied to partisanship. This includes Sens. RCP House Ratings, Map. Barnes was expected to have a tougher primary battle up until his top Democratic opponents dropped out late last month, clearing his path to the nomination, NBC projected. Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation. Tony Earlagainst his four potential Republican challengers, with Evers leading all four and Kleefisch running closest to the governor. The world has been led by intensive and extensive waves of darkness from renaissance all the way down to the Covid crisis. But partisanship isnt the only factor in Senate races (yet); a senators popularity can still make a difference. Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953-61. While the majority of Wisconsin Republican voters (62 percent) approve of his job performance, that figure is down from 70 percent before the pandemic and from 78 percent in the first three months of 2017, just after his re-election. Although partisanship has been getting more important in gubernatorial races, it is not as dominant of a force in them as it is in federal elections.3. Since 2015-16, Johnson's popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and . Sen. Ron Johnson is commonly referred to as one of the country's most unpopular U.S. senators. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson emerged from Donald Trumps presidency with his approval ratings in Wisconsin underwater and its only gotten worse under Joe Biden, even as voters there have soured on the Democratic president. Wikler said every Democratic candidate has a slightly different path to victory and touted Democrats successful efforts to reduce Republican margins in the states deep red areas, swing the suburbs and increase the partys standing in urban communities. One reason may be that voters are more polarized in general. And if he is able to maintain a positive net approval rating (its +6 currently), that will be a sign of life for his candidacy. Republicans in Wisconsin said Johnson would do well to craft a message meant to appeal to voters in the middle, nodding to the approach of Virginia Gov. . A Democratic governor with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARG of +9 (2+7 = 9). Over the past year, Johnson has suffered through his longest and deepest period of unpopularity since Marquette began polling about him in early 2013 a stretch of 61 statewide polls. The Cook Political Report lists the 2022 Senate race as a toss-up. Accordingly, he leads all senators with a +35 PARS. But a lot has changed in the last few months. But as Franklin notes, Johnsons growing salience for these voters could help Democratic turnout. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). I'm just trying to convey the truth. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1420576007798-2'); }); The survey released Wednesday found slipping approval ratings for Democratic Gov. A spokesperson for Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., says he was unaware of an exchange between his staff and that of Vice President Mike Pence on Jan. 6, 2021. Johnsons decline in popularity since 2019 has occurred among almost all groups. Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot,6 Republicans currently lead by 2.6 percentage points (45.5 percent to 42.9 percent). Finally, the two governors with the worst PARGs are Democrats Kate Brown of Oregon (-25) and David Ige of Hawaii (-41). Note that the partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. His race is expected to be very competitive. Incumbent Sens. 2023, Urban Milwaukee, Inc. All rights reserved. In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Barnes still leads, with 25% of the vote versus 21% for Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, 9%for state treasurer Sarah Godlewski. So, its not a short-term fluctuation, but a strong trend, said pollster Charles Franklin, who provided the data used here. Scott and Kelly4 seem to be in the best position, especially Scott: Not only does he have more cross-party appeal than Kelly (+77 PARG), but he is also a Republican running in a good Republican year. And a high number of respondents who dont know which candidate they favor 36% in the primary for senator and 32% in the primary for governor allows lots of room for both races to change. Gerald Ford 1974-77. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Mark Warner of Virginia and Tina Smith of Minnesota are electorally vulnerable.